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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.